Revenue sitting in lapsed customers — and what a win-back delivers.
Inputs
If they re-engage
Results
Total recovered revenue—
Customers re-engaged
—
Discount cost
—
Net contribution
—
If campaign continues monthly
About this calculator
Lapsed customers are the cheapest revenue available to most ecommerce brands. They already know your product, paid CAC has already been spent, and they only need a small nudge to return. A 5% conversion on a 3,000-customer win-back list is 150 returning customers — equivalent to acquiring 150 brand-new customers at $0 CAC.
This calculator quantifies the recoverable revenue and the contribution after discount. The math: lapsed customers × win-back conversion × AOV = recovered revenue. Subtract the discount cost (revenue × discount %) and apply gross margin to get net contribution. Most win-back campaigns produce 4-8× ROI vs the cost of the discount alone.
The bigger LTV story: a re-engaged customer is more likely to buy again than a brand-new customer. So the immediate revenue from the win-back is just the down payment — the lifetime value of restored relationships compounds over the following 12-24 months.
Pair with the Customer Reactivation Cost calculator (compares win-back cost to acquisition cost) and the Cohort Retention tool (which informs who counts as truly lapsed vs slow-cycle). Most operators discover win-back is their highest-ROI single email program.
Frequently asked questions
What's a "lapsed" customer?
No purchase in 60-180 days, depending on your typical purchase cycle. For consumables (haven't bought in 60 days). For durables (180+ days). Distinguishing lapsed from churned is hard — assume any customer past your typical repeat window is lapsed but recoverable.
What return rate should I expect?
2-8% conversion on a well-targeted win-back email. Free shipping or modest discount (10-15% off) drives the higher end. Below 2%, your message-product fit is weak. Above 10%, you're likely cannibalizing customers who would have returned organically.
How deep should the discount be?
10-15% is the sweet spot. Below 10% rarely lifts win-back rate. Above 25% trains customers to lapse strategically (waiting for the discount). Free shipping or value-add (free gift with purchase) often outperforms straight discount.
When should win-back fire?
90-180 days after last purchase for most categories. Earlier than 90 days, customers haven't actually lapsed (just spread purchase cadence). Later than 180 days, recovery rates drop sharply — emails feel out of touch.
Should win-back be email or SMS?
Both, sequenced. Email first (lower cost per send, higher tolerance), then SMS for non-responders 7-10 days later. Combined campaigns deliver 30-50% higher recovery rates than email-only.