Per-box profit and 12-month LTV at your churn rate.
Inputs
SKUs included in the box
Custom box, inserts, materials
Pick, pack, label per box
Per-box economics
Margin per box—
Margin %
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Avg lifetime
—
LTV
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CAC payback
LTV:CAC
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Payback (months)
—
Profit per subscriber
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Cost breakdown
Component
Per Box
% of Price
About this calculator
Subscription boxes have unique unit economics that don\'t fit traditional ecommerce or SaaS frameworks. The recurring revenue model looks like SaaS but the COGS-per-cycle model looks like ecommerce. Operators who use SaaS LTV math overestimate; operators who use ecommerce per-order math miss the lifetime value.
This calculator models per-box margin (revenue minus product, packaging, fulfillment, shipping) and projects 12-month-plus LTV based on churn rate. Healthy subscription box economics produce 25-40% per-box margin with 5-8% monthly churn, yielding LTV:CAC ratios of 3:1 or better.
The lifecycle dynamic to watch: month 1 has the highest churn (often 15-25% as bad-fit customers leave), then it stabilizes around 5-8% from month 4 onward. Acquisition campaigns that don\'t pre-qualify (over-promising in ads, too-deep first-box discounts attracting bargain hunters) suffer disproportionately from month-1 churn.
Pair this with the Subscriber LTV Calculator (which uses ARPU/churn/gross margin), the Churn Revenue Impact tool (which projects MRR forward), and the LTV:CAC Ratio Calculator for fuller subscription health analysis.
Frequently asked questions
What's a healthy subscription box margin?
25-40% net margin per box is healthy. Below 20% there's no room for CAC payback. Above 50% usually means a niche or premium positioning. Beauty/grooming subscription boxes tend to run 30-40%; food/snack boxes are tighter at 20-30%.
Why is subscription box margin tighter than other DTC?
Three factors. First, packaging is often custom and expensive ($1-3 per box). Second, fulfillment is monthly recurring labor (pick, pack, ship per cycle). Third, customers expect "value" packed into each box — operators tend to under-price product cost relative to perceived value, eroding margin.
How does churn affect box margin economics?
Churn drives the LTV math. At 8% monthly churn, average customer stays ~12.5 months. At 5% monthly churn, ~20 months. Same per-box margin × different lifetime = wildly different LTV. Reducing churn 1% often produces more revenue impact than raising prices.
Should the first box be discounted?
Industry standard is 50%+ off the first box for acquisition. The math works because LTV from subsequent full-priced boxes covers the discount over 3-4 cycles. If your first-box discount is producing customers who churn before payback, the discount is too deep — try 30-40% instead.
How does box rotation affect economics?
Hugely. Rotating themes/products keep churn low but increase product variety cost and SKU complexity. Static-product boxes (same items every month) have higher churn but operational simplicity. Most successful boxes rotate 50-70% of contents while keeping 30-50% consistent for predictability.