Bull / base / bear projections for revenue and profit.
Inputs
Bull = base ×(1+adj)
Bear = base ×(1-adj)
12-month projection
Month
Bear
Base
Bull
Annual totals
Bear: revenue / profit
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Base: revenue / profit
—
Bull: revenue / profit
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Variance from base
About this calculator
Scenario planning separates serious operators from optimistic ones. Most founder forecasts are aspirational — single numbers built from gut feel about how the next quarter "should" look. Bull/base/bear forces explicit modeling of what could go right and wrong, and produces a range that\'s honest about uncertainty.
This calculator builds a three-scenario projection from a current monthly revenue base and a base-case growth rate. Bull case applies the upward adjustment percentage to base growth; bear case applies the downward. The resulting range shows annual revenue and profit under each scenario over a configurable horizon.
The most useful application is cash planning. Budget operating expenses and major commitments (hires, inventory POs, lease decisions) on the bear case. Use base for normal-case planning and bull for stretch incentives. Operators who plan on the base case discover too late that bear conditions break their cash position; operators who plan on the bear case have buffer when conditions are normal and explosive growth when conditions are good.
Pair with the Cash Flow Runway and Monthly Burn Rate calculators (validate runway under bear conditions) and the Profit Reinvestment Modeler (compounding under each scenario). Boards and investors expect bull/base/bear; running internal planning the same way produces better decisions year-round.
Frequently asked questions
Why three scenarios?
Single-point forecasts always miss. Bull/base/bear gives you the range of outcomes and forces honest conversation about what could go right and wrong. Investors and board members expect this format; founders should plan in it too.
How do I size the spread?
Bull case: assume +30-50% above base. Bear: -30-40% below. Tight spreads (±10%) signal you're not really planning scenarios — just forecasting with optimism/pessimism rounding. Wide spreads (±60%+) signal lack of forecast confidence.
Which scenario should I budget on?
Always the bear case for cash flow and runway. The base for hiring and inventory commitments. The bull for stretch goals and bonus structures. Operators who budget on the base case run out of cash when bear conditions hit.
What goes into bull vs bear?
Bull: better-than-expected ad efficiency, viral organic moment, channel that scales, retention surprise. Bear: ad costs rise, channel saturates, supply issue, recession on category. List specific drivers, not just "better/worse."
How often should scenarios update?
Quarterly review and reset. Mid-quarter checks for whether you've drifted from base toward bull or bear. Don't update scenarios reactively to a single bad month — that's noise, not signal.